أخبار الجمعه السابع من نوفمبر 2008

Goldman Reverses U.S. Stock Advice, Says Shun Overseas Sales

By Michael Patterson

Nov. 6 (Bloomberg) — Goldman Sachs Group Inc. strategists advised U.S. stock investors to buy companies that generate most of their sales in America and avoid those with high overseas revenue, reversing a strategy they had advocated through July.

David Kostin, who leads Goldman’s New York-based portfolio strategy team, recommended shares of 50 companies that get a large percentage of sales in the U.S., including Union Pacific Corp. and Kohl’s Corp., on expectations that foreign economies will deteriorate at a faster pace. Money managers should reduce holdings of companies with the most non-U.S. sales and sell short those with high revenue from western Europe, according to a research note dated yesterday.

“Although the absolute rate of economic growth in 2009 may be lower in the U.S. than most other areas of the world, the incremental economic data points in many non-U.S. economies are rapidly deteriorating at a faster pace than in the U.S.,” Kostin wrote. “Weak economic growth and further downside risks to the developed European economies will impede revenue growth for U.S. companies highly exposed to the region.”

Kostin advised clients in April to buy a basket of companies with high foreign sales and sell short those that rely on U.S. demand, saying that economies abroad would grow at a faster pace. While he stopped giving that advice in July after the strategy lost 1.3 percent, he said the trade “should perform over the long-term.”

Goldman’s basket of companies with high overseas sales has dropped 34 percent since then, compared with a 31 percent decline in its gauge of U.S.-dependent stocks, as evidence increased that economies in Europe and Asia were headed for recession. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index, a benchmark for U.S. equities, has declined 25 percent during that period.