المال كابيتال : أرابتك تواجه أزمة سيولة
داو جونز/
أفادت “المال كابيتال” أنّ شركة أرابتك” الدبيانية تواجه أزمة من حيث السيولة وأنّه من المرجح أن ينحدر إجمالي العائدات في العام 2009 حتى تُحل المشاكل المتصلة بالسيولة.
وأشارت المحللة مالا بانشوليا في هذا الصدد: “يبدو أنّ الشركة في وضعٍ حرج نظراً إلى حاجات رأس المال العامل. كما أن الميزانية العمومية منهكة للغاية بسبب عدم مواءمة التدفقات النقدية نتيجة الخلل الذي أصاب حسابات القبض المتزايدة وارتفاع الخصوم المتداولة”.
وتقول بانشوليا إن الشركة قد تواجه صعوبات في التفاوض حول تسهيلات الدين الجديدة، كما أنها لم تدرس احتمال الاحتياطات بالنسبة إلى حالات العجز المرجحة التي يمكن أن تلحق الضرر بوضع الشركة النقدي الذي يعاني أصلاً من مشاكل.
صدقوني يا جماعة شركة أربتك تمردت على المافيا…والمافيا تحاربها الآن بكل الوسائل للنيل منها وحتى عندما تطلق “المال كابيتال” هذا الخبر .. الأكيد هو ليس من باب المصلحة العامة أو تنوير المستثمرين وإنما هو نابع من مصلحة ضيقة خاصة بها وعلينا أن لا نبلع هذه السموم بسرعة . لا أقول بأن الشركة ليس لديها مشاكل وأن أمورها ماشية 100% ولكن ليس كما يصورونه لنا بأن الشركة واقفة على حافة الإفلاس زيها زي كل الشركات بل أقول بأن شركة أربتك أفضل من معظم الشركات لدينا والتي تعمل في مجال تخصصها.
خلاصة الموضوع:
شركة أرابتك من ضمن الذين تقدموا بعرضهم لبناء مشروع برج الفتان الذي يقع في مارينا دبي و تطوره شركة الفتان العقاريه ..
هذا و قد سبق لشركة أرابتك بناء برج الفتان مارين لنفس الشركه المطوره في عام 2006 في نفس المنطقه ..
“الفتان” تستدرج عروض أطول برج في المارينا
الأربعاء 21 يناير 2009 – 10:16 Gmt+4
طلبت مجموعة الفتان من شركات المقاولات تقديم عروضها قبل 31 يناير كانون الثاني الحالي لعقد إنشاء برج متعدد الاستخدام في دبي مارينا، وذكرت “ميد” أن البرج الذي يتكون من 96 طابقاً هو الأعلى ضمن مشروع المارينا، ويقام في الموقع السابق لفندق الواحة.
Published: 04 March 2009 11:22 GMT Author: Colin Foreman More by this Author Last Updated: 04 March 2009 15:54
The local Al-Fattan Properties has received bids from at least two groups for its Burj al-Fattan project at Dubai Marina.
The bidders include the joint venture of the local Al-Habtoor Engineering Enterprises with South Africa’s Murray & Roberts Contractors (Middle East), and the local Arabtec Construction.
The scheme involves the construction of a 96-floor mixed-use tower on the site of the old Oasis Beach hotel (MEED 16:2:09).
UK-based Mace International is the project manager.
In 2006, Arabtec completed the Al-Fattan Marine Towers in the same area for the same client.
Dubai-based property developer Fortune Group has invited companies to submit bids by late March for the contract to build a 501-metre-high tower in Dubai. The high-rise project is called the Burj al-Alam.
Author: Colin Foreman. Gulf Bureau Chief
Dubai
Prices in for Burj al-Fattan
و تقرير هيرمس السنوى يوصى بشراء الأسهم التاليه:
Etisalat, DU, ARTC, ENBD, FGB, Sourouh, Aldar, ARTC, AArabia (only FGB, ENBD, ARTC has short term Buy and long Term Buy),
لاحظوا يوصوا بشراء سهم أرابتيك على المدى القصير و المدى البعيد ايضا
نسخه عن التقرر:
EFG Hermes 11 December 2008:
Telecoms is one of our most favored sectors at present (utilities being the other, though it is unlisted in the UAE) and we highlight Etisalat (ETISALAT) as our preferred stock. With the bulk of the company’s value being derived from the UAE and maturing Saudi operations, we see the company transforming into more of a value play than before. The company generates a free cashflow yield of 6.3% to market cap and has a net cash to equity ratio of 8.3% in 2009e. Even under pessimistic assumptions regarding population growth, an adjusted LTFV of AED17.6 leaves substantial upside from current levels.
As we stated earlier, we retain a positive view on Abu Dhabi real estate given its earlier stage of development, acute undersupply and robust demand. We prefer Sorouh Real Estate (SOROUH) given that the company is substantially net cash positive (80% of equity), allowing it to continue executing its portfolio comfortably. Although we remain positive on Aldar (ALDAR) over the longer term, the company will move into an increasing net debt position from 2009e onwards. With the off-plan model coming under greater scrutiny, we believe gearing levels will be key determinants of share price performance in the short to medium term. In addition, Sorouh has developed a slightly higher level of its portfolio relative to Aldar and thus has moderately less inventory exposed to a weaker real estate environment. Sentiment and immigration rates remain a key concern. Shares are trading at 2.5x P/E and 0.9x P/B for 2009e.
Shares in Arabtec (ARTC) have suffered dramatically with the sell-off of the real estate sector, though with the share price equivalent to 1.3x FCF/share and 1.4x the net cash position for 2010e we see limited downside risk. Currently, markets are effectively pricing no earnings generation beyond 2010e, which we believe is unjustifiably aggressive. Over the next one to two years, we believe its backlog exposure to top-tier clients should minimize the risk of delays and cancellations. The dramatic drop in the cost of building materials should be supportive for projects in progress previously being delayed or at risk of cancellation due to rising cost pressure. Any cancellations that do occur could be used to the company’s advantage by allowing the redeployment of resources to higher growth MENA markets.
Strategy
Over the medium term, we believe Arabtec will move increasingly into the infrastructure spend space, where its exposure is currently relatively limited. Our forecasts take into account delays and cancellations – and also renegotiations on pricing. A worst-case scenario of the order book being halved (which we view as highly unlikely) yields an LTFV of AED9.86, substantially above current levels and implying a P/E ratio of 4.4x in 2009e. Shares are currently trading at 1.7x 2009e earnings.
Though it might seem incongruous to favor a traditionally high-cyclicality business, we favor Air Arabia (AIRARABIA) for several reasons. Its operations in an expatriate-dominated market suggest that traveling will continue to be fairly robust, while the current environment is likely to see consumer and business travelers trade down to low-cost carriers, a segment that Air Arabia clearly dominates. The company’s net cash position (33% of equity) should also provide it with a buffer. Finally, we consider management quality to be among the highest in the UAE, which is a valuable resource to have in the current turbulent environment. Shares are trading at 7.6x 2009e P/E.
Within the Banks sector, we highlight First Gulf Bank (FGB) as an Abu Dhabi based play trading at below book value. Our recommendation of a bank with high exposure to the real estate sector might appear a contradictory stance, but we estimate that real estate values would need to fall by as much as 30% before losses begin to be booked for the bank. Also, the vast bulk of the real estate is located within Abu Dhabi, which gives us further comfort. We expect to see the bank benefit from its strong momentum, in turn derived from its strong domestic business and aggressive diversification plan. The diversification comprises geographic (Algeria, Libya and Singapore) as well as product (Islamic finance, wealth management and bancassurance). Shares are among the cheapest in the sector at 0.7x P/B 2009e.
We highlight two companies that we keep on our radar: Aramex (ARMX) and Dana Gas (DANA). We believe Aramex benefits from its strong regional presence and its growing market share in a fragmented industry. The two factors which we believe will support Aramex the most, however, are its cash pile (25% of equity) and its high quality management, which managed to deliver exceptionally results in the face of rising oil prices in 3Q2008. This is also related to the fact that Aramex was, prior to its Dubai listing, streamlined with the help of private equity. We refrain from adding Aramex to our top-tier picks since it generates a third of its business from Europe. However, this could be compensated for by a possible acquisition in Asia. With valuations currently very cheap, it would be a timely use of the company’s cash pile, but given that this is something the company has been eyeing for roughly two years now, it is not something we would expect management to jump in on quickly. Shares are trading below their historic range at 7.7x 2009e P/E.
We believe Dana Gas is beginning to look very promising. We expect the Centurion business to benefit from management’s aggressive exploration and development plan. Meanwhile, we see increased likelihood of the UAE gas project (with Iran) materializing in 1H2009, as the bulk of the work on the USD2 billion project (split equally between the Iranian government and Crescent Petroleum) has been completed. A positive announcement on this front would be a key catalyst for the shares. Finally, the Kurdistan business is underway and Dana Gas is allowed to recover the entirety of its costs before revenue-sharing agreements with the government kick in. The development of neighboring fields provides considerable further upside potential. There is room for margin pressure as the LPG and condensate by-products are sold at international prices, but the full effect of oil prices is limited due to the presence of fixed contracts and tariffs. Shares trade at 6.0x 2009e earnings, but we believe the company looks more interesting on a sum-of-the-parts basis which suggest that current levels are only pricing in Centurion, with the UAE and Kurdistan businesses effectively being given for free. The stock is not within our top tier list of stock picks since the ongoing delay in the Iran gas contract has materially dented management credibility, in our opinion.
For stocks that we would be underweight, we highlight Tabreed (TABREED), primarily due to the company’s negative free cashflow generative profile over the next three years. This will likely necessitate further partial sales of its various plants. While this is a positive move from a medium-term perspective, in the short term it would necessitate downward revisions to earnings. In addition, the inevitable risk of delays will occasionally result in earnings being delivered below expectations. While we are long-term believers of the company, especially from a thematic perspective, we believe that shares will suffer in the current environment. Shares trade at 10.9x 2009e earnings.
We have near-term concerns over Dubai Islamic Bank (DIB) and Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank (ADCB). For Dubai Islamic Bank, we have issues over multiple areas, not least the continued detention by the authorities of senior management members. DIB will face difficulties from the slowdown in sukuk issuance, the country risk in Pakistan, a likely decrease in profitability in its investment banking arm, probable write-downs in its investment book and ongoing troubles with Tamweel and Deyaar. To be fair, shares have been the worst performing in the sector and at current levels (0.7x P/BV 2009e), a lot of the negativity has already been priced in. Nevertheless, we would look to avoid shares in the short term.
Lastly, we would also avoid Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank in the short term. While we believe the sub-prime exposure is now behind the bank, we still retain concerns over its Macquarie Bank alliance, exposure to construction lending and exposure to loans for share repurchases. On the last two items, ADCB maintains the highest exposure from our coverage universe. We also question the bank’s expansion into Malaysia given that it has the highest penetration of Islamic banking services globally. That said, we take a positive view on recent strategy changes, suggesting legacy issues have been left behind. Shares trade at 0.9x P/B 2009e.
اقول الكنج استريح ……….. الشركه لو مافيها سيوله ما بيدخلها
شريك اساسي ( هاشم الصافي ) 7 %
ولو افترضنا صحه كلامك فالدعم اللوجستي وصل