هام : توقعات صندوق النقد الدولي لاقتصاد الدولة ب2009

IMF Cuts U.A.E. Growth Forecast to 3.3% as Oil Plummets

By Camilla Hall and Christopher Swann

Jan. 29 (Bloomberg) — The International Monetary Fund cut its economic growth forecast for the United Arab Emirates by almost half after oil prices and the value of overseas investments plummeted, according to a draft report.

Gross domestic product will expand by 3.3 percent this year, down from a previous estimate of 6 percent, the IMF said in a draft of its annual report on the country obtained by Bloomberg News. The document was dated Dec. 3 and no time has been set yet for its release.

Dubai, the first emirate to diversify its economy into financial services and tourism, has debt estimated at 90 percent of GDP, the Washington-based IMF said. Oil-rich Abu Dhabi, whose sovereign wealth fund invested in companies such as Citigroup Inc., has had estimated investment losses of $125 billion, according to a report by the Council on Foreign Relations.

The ability of Abu Dhabi to support companies and banks during the global financial crisis “could become more constrained if oil prices decline further or if the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority and other institutions experience further sharp declines in the value of their external assets,” the IMF said.

Oil and gas exports will decline to $80.8 billion from $109.2 billion last year while the budget surplus will fall to 12 percent of GDP from 23 percent, the IMF said. Oil prices have dropped more than $100 a barrel from their July high of $147.27.

Finance Developments

Construction companies in the U.A.E. are struggling to finance developments and sell real estate after credit dried up and a five-year surge in property prices ended.

“Ongoing projects may have to be slowed down, and new projects, particularly in the real-estate sector, be put on hold,” the IMF said. “The authorities are working on coordinated support for these corporates, to ensure an orderly ‘soft landing’ and prevent spillovers to the banking sector.”

Nakheel PJSC, the Dubai developer that’s building the world’s tallest tower, announced on Jan. 14 that it was delaying the project and in November said it was reducing its workforce by 15 percent.

Inflation in the emirates is expected to slow to 6.7 percent this year from an estimated 12.7 percent last year as the dollar strengthens and food and commodity prices fall, the IMF said.

To contact the reporter on this story: Camilla Hall in Dubai at chall24@bloomberg.net; Christopher Swann in Washington at cswann1@bloomberg.net.

والله شي محير ويجنن …….. التوقعات الرسمية تتكلم عن نمو 6 و 7% وصندوق النقد الدولي يقول 3.3% (يعني النصف) !!!!
المشكلة أن هالدراسات والتوقعات سواءا الرسمية أو الخارجية تأثيرها كبير على حركة الاستثمارات الاجنبية سلبا أو ايجابا…!!!!!