هل تتساقط الدببة كالذباب ب 2009 ؟ عام الثيران !

لعل الجميع بحيرة من امرهم

دخلت على عدة مواضيع هذا وقد سادت مواضيع التحليل الموجي بالاونة الاخيرة

البعض يتوقع احيانا كسر القاع القديم عند مستوى 1428 والاخر يتوقع ان يعود ارابتك ل 85 فلس ثم يعود هو نفسه ليتفاءل ويتوقع التدبيلة !!!!

واخر يتوقع انفجار والتحليق للاعلى

فلماذا كل هذا الاختلاف ؟

ومن الذي سيحدد الاتجاه ؟

شمال ام جنوب

للقارىء العادي الحق ان يتساءل ما الذي يمكن ان يهدر ال 10 % التي تبقت من اموالي بعدما فقدت اصلا %90 من قيمتها ؟ وما الذي يمكن ان يعيد على الاقل 50 % من اموالي الضائعة ؟

هل العملية سحر ؟

بالتاكيد لا وانما الاجابة هي بما هو قادم بحالة الاقتصاد وكل انواع التحليل الفني كلاسيكي او موجي تحاول قراءة ذلك مقدما ولكن مشكلة بعض المحللين الفنيين انهم يعملون بمعزل تام وبساتر ترابي عن اي معلومة اقتصادية ويكتفوا بقراءة الشارتات والمؤشرات ولهذا تتقلب اراءهم شمالا وجنوبا بين ليلة وضحاها
بالطبع هو الحالة العامة للاقتصاد العالمي والمحلي من سيحسم الامور

قرات مقالا جميلا مفاده ” ان الدببة تتساقط كالذباب في بيات شتوي ” وان كل الاخبار السيئة بالاشارة الى الناتج القومي الياباني المتراجع بالربع الاول من 2009 لم تكبح ارتفاع السوق بمعنى ان كل شيء سيء هو اصلا مخصوم بالاسعار وباشارة اساسية الى الانخفاض المستمر ب Default swap rate وهو معدل الفائدة المدفوع للتامين على ضمان سداد الديون وباشارة الى صكوك شركة الدار التي طرحت على ب 500 مليون دولار فاذ بها تجمع 1.25 مليار دولار دلالة على ارتفاع الطلب وتوفر السيولة

اوباما يقول ” ان اشارات بدات تظهر تدل على تعافي الاقتصاد “

هذا يقول وانا اقول وذاك يقول ولكن السوق له كلمة الفصل والسوق للان يدل على قوة وصلابة ب 2009

فهل يكون عام الثيران بامتياز بعكس كل التوقعات وتتساقط الدببة كالحشرات كما يشير المقال ؟

نص المقال :

CDS LEVELS (NOTE: CDS moves since 11th May to todays open )
SOV CDS 5Y CDS 3 DAY MOVE Comment
ABU DHABI 200/230 (-10bps)
DUBAI 480/525 (-5bps) Traded @ 1025 13thFeb
SAUDI 135/175 (-20bps)
QATAR 160/195 (-10bps)
BAHRAIN 365/415
CORP U.A.E
ADCB 230/280 (-20bps)
NBAD 210/260 (-20bps)
TAQA 225/265 (-15bps)
EBIUH 485/545 (-15bps)
JAFZA 750/900 (-50bps) Estimated mkt level
DIFC 750/900 (-50bps) Estimated mkt level
DP WORLD 550/625 (-75bps)
DUBAI HLDING 900/1100 (-50bps) Traded @ 2000 13thFeb
BONDS
CASH PRICE 4 DAY MOVE
Nakheel 12/09 87/89 +2pts As low as 56 mid Feb
JAFZA aed 12s 73.5/75.5 +8pts
ALDAR 13s 82/84 +1pt
DUGB FRN 13 84/85.5 +.50pt
ADGB 2014 T+276 -6bps FPR T+400
ADGB 2019 T+314 -4bps FPR T+420
MUBAUH 14s T+361 -23bps FPR T+395
MUBAUH 19s T+429 -4bps FPR T+ 462.5

EQUITIES Value Open % move 3 day Year to date % move
DFM 1662 0.60% (+1.60%)
ADX 2613 (+9.33%)
COMMENT
Well who can stop this now? Bears seem to be dropping into hibernation like flies. Even our friends at Emirates NBD this morning were turning bullish after weeks of bearishness! No matter what bad news filters out such as Japan 1st quarter GDP down -4% from the previous quarter the market shrugs it off. You here vague calls of bubbles in the Asian stock markets and with China up well over 50% they seem justified but you cannot stop the growing herd mentality. If like me you are kicking yourself for not being involved / sidelined or waiting for the right opportunity/sell-off you are the new wave of market participants that will probably take us further still. However I think it would be worth hanging on at least for a further week to see if this rally can hold.
The market seems awash with cash, Libor continues to freefall as does our own Eibor. Yesterday even Aldar a ‘real-estate’ developer (as you all know) managed to build just over a USD 5.2bn book for their new USD 5Y. Originally touted as a USD 500mm deal due to the demand this quickly became USD1.25bn deal coming at the tight end of expectations of 8.75% YTM. This equates to roughly T+675. Have to question though the quality of the accounts as the book struggled to build for the 1st day or so but strong traction was gained during the closing hours with interest coming from around 200 accounts. As a strategic company with very strong ties to the Abu Dhabi gov’t (indirect shareholding of 37%) and pivotal in a lot of the new development and expansion plans it seems fair to compare it to Mubadala so over 300bps discount seems appealing. There were sellers of Abu Dhabi and Mubadala all week making room for the Aldar deal but it did little to dent the ongoing demand for these names from regional investors. Local demand was strong for the new Aldar and the success of placing this deal should give traction to existing Aldar issues notably the Aldar 13s Sukuk which at the last offer seen prior to the launch of 83 looks even better value at DM+677 or 9.26% than the USD 14s. With the 13s less cash needs to be put to work and a shorter maturity. Plus the 13s have the added benefit of being a Sukuk which supposedly is more secure for the investor than an outright unsecured vanilla bond. Question marks are being raised the last couple of days though notably in the FT after Investment Dar defaulted on its sukuk that due to the complex nature of the sukuk structure and how investors will be treated. The FT argues that if the law is followed they should be treated like on par with equity shareholders?
One last point to note on the Nakheel 09s spiked up on Monday over 5 points to 90-92 following the comments at the World Economic Forum by Dubai’s Head of Department of Finance Nasser Al Sheikh that it qualified for part of the Dubai USD 10bn loan. However he was subsequently sacked. The market interpreted the removal of him (who was highly regarded in the marketplace) as a sign that he had spoken out of turn over Nakheel hence the dip back in price of Nakheel 09s however he also apparently mentioned a few other things such as the importance of the DIFC to the UAE and after the events in the last 24 hours with the decision to pull out of the GCC single currency this may explain other reasons to remove him? Therefore at 89 cash price or a 45% YTM the Nakheel 09s still offers substantial upside with time running out and limited options available but to repay.
NB: So far the new Aldar has traded a couple of times in our time around 100.125 and as London come in its now trading at 100 (Fixed Price Reoffer).